Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Test post

Check it out, dudes: just last month we got like 80 inquiries from high-wealth types looking for some of our prime juicy real estate.



We ought to accommodate them. Our real estate firms are chomping at the bit to sell them some land, but you know how rich folk are, always bitching about how there ought to be a, whatyacallit, doctor in the town they live in.




Yeah, but we put a hospital in here and they'll just move haphazardly right into the middle of the slums. That's the last damn thing I need, a line of rich morons at my office that moved into the slums and then want to bitch about the neighborhood.


So we bandied that about a little and decided the best way to deal with it would be to lay out some land for the rich folk, put a clinic in the middle of it, but not give it any ambulances. The rich snobs ought to like that, a medical clinic undefiled by filthy peasants. The peasants won't like it none too much, but since when do we care about peasants?

Friday, January 21, 2011

The Almighty Tecmo Speaks: 2010 AFC Championship

SIMULATION 1

Jets 7 7 0 0 14
Steelers 3 7 7 14 31

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Shaun Suisham 21 yard field goal (0-3)
1Q: Mark Sanchez 34 yard pass to Santonio Holmes (7-3)
2Q: James Farrior 40 yard interception return (7-10)
2Q: Joe McKnight 1 yard run (14-10)
3Q: Ben Roethlisberger 6 yard pass to Rashard Mendenhall (14-17)
4Q: Emmanuel Sanders 10 yard run (14-24)
4Q: Emmanuel Sanders 2 yard run (14-31)

INJURIES

1Q: LaDainian Tomlinson

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Troy Polamalu (2 interceptions)

Ben Roethlisberger: 72%, 203 yards, 1 TD
Mark Sanchez: 40%, 96 yards, 1 TD, 5 INT (McFadden 2, Farrior, Polamalu 2)
Rashard Mendenhall: 10 carries, 37 yards; 10 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD
Shonn Greene: 4 carries, 23 yards; 2 receptions, 12 yards
Santonio Holmes: 2 receptions, 61 yards, TD



SIMULATION 2

Jets 7 7 3 7 3 27
Steelers 7 10 0 7 0 24

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Heath Miller 54 yard fumble return (0-7)
2Q: Mark Sanchez 34 yard pass to Braylon Edwards (7-7)
2Q: Rashard Mendenhall 3 yard run (7-14)
2Q: Shaun Suisham 30 yard field goal (7-17)
3Q: Nick Folk 41 yard field goal (10-17)
4Q: LaDainian Tomlinson 2 yard run (17-17)
4Q: Ben Roethlisberger 22 yard pass to Hines Ward (24-24)
OT: Nick Folk 26 yard field goal (27-24)

INJURIES

2Q: Mike Wallace, Rashard Mendenhall
3Q: James Harrison

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Braylon Edwards (7 receptions, 181 yards, 1 TD)
Ben Roethlisberger: 60%, 108 yards, 1 TD
Mark Sanchez: 54%, 283 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (Polamalu)
Rashard Mendenhall: 7 carries, 41 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson: 9 carries, 81 yards; 2 receptions, 20 yards



SIMULATION 3

Jets 0 14 7 14 31
Steelers 7 0 0 7 14

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Ben Roethlisberger 9 yard pass to Hines Ward (0-7)
2Q: Mark Sanchez 16 yard pass to Braylon Edwards (7-7)
2Q: Mark Sanchez 36 yard pass to Braylon Edwards (14-7)
3Q: Nick Folk 41 yard field goal (17-7)
4Q: LaDainian Tomlinson 14 yard run (24-7)
4Q: Ben Roethlisberger 24 yard pass to Hines Ward (24-14)
4Q: LaDainian Tomlinson 1 yard run (31-14)

INJURIES

4Q: Rashard Mendenhall

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Braylon Edwards (5 receptions, 101 yards, 2 TD)

Ben Roethlisberger: 58%, 212 yards, 2 TD
Mark Sanchez: 52%, 173 yards, 2 TD
Hines Ward: 7 receptions, 146 yards, 2 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 7 carries, 50 yards, 2 TD
Santonio Holmes: 1 reception, 52 yards



SIMULATION 4

Jets 7 7 0 7 21
Steelers 3 0 9 0 12

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Mark Sanchez 30 yard pass to Santonio Holmes (7-0)
1Q: Shaun Suisham 52 yard field goal (7-3)
2Q: Mark Sanchez 18 yard pass to Santonio Holmes (14-3)
3Q: Ben Roethlisberger 7 yard pass to Rashard Mendenhall; extra point blocked (14-9)
3Q: Shaun Suisham 43 yard field goal (14-12)
4Q: Mark Sanchez 11 yard pass to Braylon Edwards (21-12)

INJURIES

None

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Santonio Holmes (4 receptions, 109 yards, 2 TD)

Ben Roethlisberger: 50%, 24 yards
Mark Sanchez: 61%, 162 yards, 3 TD; sacked 4 times
Rashard Mendenhall: 10 carries, 133 yards; 6 receptions, 21 yards, 1 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 9 carries, 70 yards
Shonn Greene: 9 receptions, 68 yards



SIMULATION 5

Jets 7 0 7 0 14
Steelers 7 0 3 7 17

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Emmanuel Sanders 1 yard run (0-7)
1Q: Shonn Greene 1 yard run (7-7)
3Q: Shaun Suisham 18 yard field goal (7-10)
3Q: Mark Sanchez 28 yard pass to Santonio Holmes (14-10)
4Q: Emmanuel Sanders 3 yard run (14-17)

INJURIES

None

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Emmanuel Sanders (18 carries, 91 yards, 2 TD; 2 receptions, 13 yards)

Ben Roethlisberger: 68%, 181 yards
Mark Sanchez: 59%, 106 yards, 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall: 11 carries, 61 yards; 4 receptions, 25 yards
Hines Ward: 5 receptions, 103 yards
LaDainian Tomlinson: 8 carries, 52 yards
Santonio Holmes: 3 receptions, 81 yards




TECMO'S RANDOM IMPRESSIONS

Tecmo's strongest impression is that the Steelers are going to come out with a preposterously conservative game plan, and the Jets are going to come out bombs away. No points for guessing which strategy proves more effective.

Tecmo strongly believes that Shaun Suisham will miss a chip-shot field goal, and the Steelers will likely promptly collapse like Greg Norman on Sunday as soon as that happens.

Ben Roethlisberger did not throw a single interception the entire five simulations, and was only sacked an average of once a game.

Mark Sanchez threw five interceptions in the bizarre first simulation, but only one the rest of the way. So there will be few interceptions, but Tecmo believes the Steelers are going to lose a couple of crucial fumbles. In other words, Tecmo expects the horseshoe that's been up the Jets' butt for the past two years to remain there.

One or both of the Jets' big two receivers is going to have a huge day.

If anybody picks off Sanchez, it will be the guy with the hair.




AND THE ENVELOPE, PLEASE...

Jets' scores: 14, 27, 31, 21, 14
Steelers' scores: 31, 24, 14, 12, 17

Jets' mean score: 21
Steelers' mean score: 20

Jets' median score: 21
Steelers' median score: 17

TECMO'S PREDICTION: The New York Jets win the AFC Championship, 21 to 19.

The Almighty Tecmo Speaks: 2010 NFC Championship

SIMULATION 1

Packers 7 7 0 7 21
Bears 3 7 0 0 10

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Aaron Rodgers 11 yard pass to James Jones (7-0)
2Q: Robbie Gould 30 yard field goal (7-3)
2Q: James Jones 20 yard run (14-3)
3Q: Jay Cutler 25 yard pass to Matt Forte (14-10)
4Q: Aaron Rodgers 5 yard pass to James Starks (21-10)


INJURIES

1Q: Charles Woodson, Cullen Jenkins, Donald Driver

PLAYER OF THE GAME: A.J. Hawk (3 sacks)

Aaron Rodgers: 54%, 59 yards. Not sacked.
Jay Cutler: 53%, 109 yards. Sacked 5 times.
Matt Forte: 11 carries, 74 yards; 4 receptions, 46 yards, 1 TD
James Jones: 4 carries, 61 yards; 1 reception, 11 yards, 1 TD


SIMULATION 2

Packers 0 0 7 3 10
Bears 3 0 3 7 16

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Robbie Gould 28 yard field goal (0-3)
3Q: Bryan Bulaga 24 yard fumble return (7-3)
3Q: Robbie Gould 48 yard field goal (7-6)
4Q: Mason Crosby 40 yard field goal (10-6)
4Q: Robbie Gould 31 yard field goal (10-9)
4Q: Charles Tillman 31 yard interception return (10-16)

INJURIES

1Q: Devin Hester, A.J. Hawk
2Q: Tim Jennings

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Matt Forte (14 carries, 98 yards; 5 receptions, 53 yards)
Jay Cutler: 50%, 82 yards, 2 INT
Aaron Rodgers: 38%, 99 yards, 1 INT
James Starks: 8 carries, 16 yards
Donald Driver: 2 receptions, 40 yards
Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson: 1 INT




SIMULATION 3

Packers 0 3 7 0 10
Bears 0 14 7 0 21

SCORING SUMMARY

2Q: Mason Crosby 18 yard field goal (3-0)
2Q: Earl Bennett 1 yard run (3-7)
2Q: Jay Cutler 21 yard pass to Devin Hester (3-14)
3Q: Jay Cutler 6 yard pass to Johnny Knox (3-21)
3Q: James Starks 28 yard run (10-21)

INJURIES

None

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Devin Hester (2 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD, three big kick returns)
Jay Cutler: 57%, 138 yards, 2 TD
Aaron Rodgers: 35%, 110 yards 1 INT (Chris Harris)
Matt Forte: 3 carries, 56 yards; 2 receptions, 11 yards
James Starks: 11 carries, 70 yards, 1 TD




SIMULATION 4

Packers 7 7 7 7 28
Bears 0 10 6 7 23

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Aaron Rodgers 5 yard pass to Andrew Quarless (7-0)
2Q: Matt Forte 8 yard run (7-7)
2Q: Robbie Gould 31 yard field goal (7-10)
2Q: Aaron Rodgers 16 yard pass to Donald Driver (14-10)
2Q: Robbie Gould 48 yard field goal (14-13)
3Q: James Jones 1 yard run (21-13)
3Q: Robbie Gould 23 yard field goal (21-16)
4Q: Jay Cutler 32 yard pass to Johnny Knox (21-23)
4Q: James Starks 5 yard run (28-23)

INJURIES

1Q: Earl Bennett

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Donald Driver (5 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD)
Jay Cutler: 47%, 99 yards
Aaron Rodgers: 52%, 182 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT (Danieal Manning); 3 carries, 23 yards
Matt Forte: 9 carries, 55 yards; 4 receptions, 27 yards
James Starks: 6 carries, 35 yards, 1 TD



SIMULATION 5

Packers 7 3 7 0 17
Bears 7 14 7 0 28

SCORING SUMMARY

1Q: Aaron Rodgers 60 yard pass to Greg Jennings (7-0)
1Q: Jay Cutler 22 yard pass to Devin Hester (7-7)
2Q: Jay Cutler 25 yard pass to Johnny Knox (7-14)
2Q: Earl Bennett 1 yard run (7-21)
2Q: Mason Crosby 28 yard field goal (10-21)
3Q: Jay Cutler 15 yard pass to Greg Olsen (10-28)
3Q: Aaron Rodgers 7 yard pass to Donald Driver (17-28)

INJURIES

4Q: Tramon Williams

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Jay Cutler (57%, 181 yards, 3 TD)

Aaron Rodgers: 41%, 174 yards, 2 TD
Matt Forte: 7 carries, 48 yards; 3 receptions, 27 yards
Devin Hester: 4 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD
James Starks: 6 carries, 33 yards
Donald Driver: 6 receptions, 84 yards, 1 TD
Greg Jennings: 3 receptions, 89 yards, 1 TD




TECMO'S RANDOM IMPRESSIONS

Tecmo has rarely been so clear on a point as this one: The Bears special teams will dominate this game.
Not very many interceptions, especially not from Aaron Rodgers. But very costly fumbles abound.
Robbie Gould is going to be money, unless it's garbage time.
Both quarterbacks are going to generally struggle but hit a few big plays.

AND THE ENVELOPE, PLEASE...

Packers scores: 21, 10, 10, 28, 17
Bears scores: 10, 16, 21, 23, 28

Packers mean score: 17
Bears mean score: 20

Packers median score: 17
Bears median score: 21

TECMO'S PREDICTION: The Chicago Bears win the NFC Championship, 21-17.

Friday, October 16, 2009

New Version of Untitled Story, Chapter 1

I wrote a similar chapter 1 from the same concept, based on a dream I had last year. Now I've decided to re-tool it a bit and run with it; the new Chapter 1 follows. I'd tell you what kind of story it's going to wind up being, but it's so much more fun for you to work it out yourself...

------------

My life began with the sound of a sliding door slamming into place.

I opened my eyes and took in the world into which I had just been born. It wasn't much to look at. I found myself standing inside a contraption the size of a refrigerator, but round and a little taller, and I found myself looking around at a dusty, long neglected room whose only furnishings were three open cardboard boxes, one ripped open down the side, and an empty metal shelf. All this I saw in very dim light slipping through little more than a crack in the wall, an arrow slit.

I stepped out of the tube.

My name is Quinn Vish.

I don't know how or why I know that, but the knowledge appears in my brain and I know it correct. My name is Quinn Vish... and my life has just begun. That didn't seem right; it seemed like I had to have been alive for quite some time. But I had not the faintest clue why it seemed that way. My mind was blank. Before I heard that door slide open, there was nothing. That sound marked the dawn of time.

My name is Quinn Vish. And why am I here? And where is 'here'?

I spied a door to my right and was upon it in three steps, in the blink of an eye. The knob squeaked when I turned it, and the hinges groaned like an old man trying to rise from bed in the morning.

Beyond the door lay ruins.

What had once been the purpose of this building? No man could tell. I looked down a wide hallway with a tall ceiling, and to my right it looked like great windows spanning from the ceiling halfway down the wall had once stood. They were mostly gone now, only jagged glass around the edges remaining, and a lot more glass was strewn about the floor, interspersed with dead leaves. That made me look up and out, and indeed it was late autumn; the air was chilly and the distant trees bare.

I looked down at my feet. Yes, I was wearing shoes, surprisingly nice ones. I moved quickly down the hall, glass crunching under my feet, and stopped at an open doorway where maybe a door had once been. It looked to have been some kind of... classroom? Three desks, two of them all but destroyed, lay strewn about, tossed aside by some giant, and what had once been a white markerboard was on the wall, filthy now.

I moved to the second room, and here took in a more interesting sight. This room featured a broken window, a torn up blind on the floor beneath it, and two upset bookcases. Most or all of an encyclopedia set, perhaps with a few other books of unknown nature, was littered across the floor beneath them. In the far corner a hopelessly dirty easy chair which may once have been red leaned diagonally on broken legs, its upholstery torn, its stuffing burst loose.

And a cat sat on the back of it.

Oddly, the cat didn't budge a muscle despite the speed of my approach. And when I reached it I instantly realized why: it was stuffed. It sure looked like a cat, black with white markings on its nose and paws, but it was stuffed as any deer's head in a hunter's trophy room, complete with marble eyes.

Now, why in the hell would someone stuff a cat? And especially why would a stuffed cat be in what I had begun to assume was some kind of school? I tapped on its head with my knuckles, listening to the hollow sound, when I noticed someone approaching me from behind.

I spun back to face the door. He wasn't right behind me; actually he was still a fair pace off when I first felt him. He was out in the hallway, beyond the wall, yet I could feel him moving, walking very slowly toward the room I was in, just as well as if I could see him.

He approached the doorway. I tensed. For whatever reason, I didn't find any point in hiding.

He appeared in the doorway, and he very obviously wasn't a he. Instead of... whatever it was I was expecting, I was looking at the slim form and troubled face of a girl about my own age or a little younger, early twenties.

How did I know my own age to be early twenties? My birthday flashed through my mind: February 15, 1980. What year was it now? I had no idea.

The girl remained in the doorway, and when I snapped back to reality I saw tears rolling down her cheeks. Her lip quivered.

“Is something wrong?” I asked.

“Quinn?” she whispered.

I frowned. “Do I know you?” I'd never seen her before, that I could remember, and by a quick glance I was pretty sure I would remember if I had. She was easy on the eyes.

She looked dejected. “You... don't remember me, Quinn?”

I shook my head. “Should I?”

Instead of responding, she lingered in the doorway for another second and then rushed forward. I instinctively assumed a defensive posture and glanced at her hands, confirming that she was carrying no weapons, and she crashed into me, wrapped her arms round my shoulders and hung on so tightly I thought for a moment she might be trying to suffocate me, were it not for all the tears she was pouring into my shoulder.

That lasted about a minute, and then she finally pulled herself back, and I can only imagine the flabbergasted look she saw on my face when she did. She shook her head in wonderment. “You don't remember anything at all, do you?”

“Of you? I'm sorry, but I don't.”

“Dr. Diamond didn't think you would. I knew that, but I guess I still was hoping...” she trailed off, talking mostly to herself.

“Something's very wrong, isn't it?” I said. “I remember certain things about myself, like my name and my birthday. But... that's about it. I don't remember anything at all besides, but I feel like I should.” I paused, struggling for the right words and not finding them. “Do you... have a past? Do you remember it?” I finally said.

She nodded, leaning on the broken bookshelf. “Yes. You have one too, Quinn, but you've lost it.”

“Why have I lost it?” I said. “And what is this place?”

“I've been waiting for seven years for this day, and now I don't even know where to start,” she said.

Waiting for seven years? It made no sense to me. Was seven years a long time? I was pretty sure it was, but the answer eluded my every attempt to grasp it.

“You could start by telling me your name,” I said.

She looked forlorn. “I guess I was still hoping you'd remember it.”

I shook my head. “Sorry.”

“Emily,” said she.

“Emily,” I repeated, and it sounded nice and comfortable on my lips. “Did I... know you, sometime before?”

“I knew you very well, Quinn. We... kind of grew up together”

“How old are you? Do you mind me asking?”

She giggled. “I'm twenty-two now. I was fifteen the last time you saw me.”

“And I'm about the same age,” I said rather than asked, trying to work information out.

“Hm? No,” she said. “You're twenty-eight now. Or I guess... I don't know.”

I frowned and furrowed my brow. I was sure, for some reason, but I also was about twenty-two. Being told I was twenty-eight just felt wrong, for reasons I of course couldn't comprehend. She had said seven years...

“Seven years,” I said aloud. “Something happened seven years ago. Something that made me lose my memory?”

“You kind of... haven't existed for the last seven years.”

“Nothing much is making sense to me right now, Emily, but that really doesn't make sense.”

“I know,” she said. “Um... what I'm trying to say is, you should be twenty-eight now, but I guess you still might really be twenty-one. I'll have to explain later. Quinn, they know I'm here. They're coming for me.”

“'They'?”

“The Enlightened,” she said. Why did everything she said seem to only confuse me further? Who the hell were 'the Enlightened'? “I abandoned my assignment. They'll have sent Elites, two or three of them.”

“You've got to cut to the chase,” I said. “None of that makes any sense.”

“The Enlightened is our ruling class now,” she said, “and I work for them. But I've waited all along to betray them, and now I have. The Elites are coming to take me and...” she breathed out a ragged breath. “Execute me.”

“You're not taking that as badly as you might,” I noted. “Do you know a good spot to hide?”

She shook her head sadly. “There's no hiding from the Enlightened. They just track my chip.”

Chip. “Like a computer chip?” I said, clueless as to whence this knowledge was just popping into my head. “Stuck on you somewhere?

She nodded. “So we can't—“

“They're here,” I suddenly said, interrupting her before my brain could even process the thought. “Approaching from my left, the same way you came. Moving fast. Less than ten seconds.”

She stiffened, breathing dramatically harder and faster. “Quinn...” she said, and took a step toward me.

Two tall men clad in black, faces obscured by what looked almost like a gas mask, and carrying pistols materialized in the doorway. “Emily Suard,” one boomed—was his voice rigged to a megaphone I couldn't see?—“turn around, drop to your knees and put your hands behind your head.” He paused, cocked his head, looking me over. “And who are you?”

“Quinn Vish,” I said reflexively.

The two Elites looked at one another, and then the other one looked down at some gizmo he was holding in his off hand.

“Nothing,” he murmured.

“An unchipped, Quinn Vish?” boomed the spokesman. “Very well. On your knees as well, Quinn Vish. Hands behind your head.

Emily was already in the demanded position now. Unable to tell just what to make of this situation except that we apparently were in trouble, I knelt beside her and put up my hands.

“Quinn...” she whispered, body and voice trembling. “They can't take us. Fight them.”

“Do what?” I said, more loudly.

“Silence!” they had moved up behind us, to within a step.

“Fight them!” Emily whispered urgently. “Please!”

And then they both lay dead, or at least seriously incapacitated, on the floor. I blinked, looking down at them and trying to recall what had just happened. It couldn't have taken more than two seconds. I had spun, grabbed, whipped the two together, ducked, thrown an elbow, and... that was it.

I looked down again. One of the two only had half a head.

The other half appeared to be largely splattered across my arm.

What did I just do? How did I do that?

Emily stood leaning her full weight back against the wall, trembling, her mouth hanging open. Clearly she was pondering the same two questions.

“It works,” she whispered.

“What works?”

“You do.” She embraced me a second time, more delicately than the first. “You just saved my life. Thank you. Now we should get out of here, but first there's something I need you to do for me.”

“What's that?”

“Remove my chip.”

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

It's Funny Because It's True!

Bryan: Seriously, the O/U for that game is 52. Anyone who takes the under should have their access to money revoked forever.
* Justin takes the under
Bryan: ... You don't have any money for me to revoke access to.
Justin: I had my access to money revoked three and a half years ago.
Bryan: AKA marriage.
Justin: ^

Sunday, September 20, 2009

Remarkably Inaccurate Week 2 Picks

You want easy money? Just take however much money you plan on gambling this week, split it 16 ways and bet against all my picks. You'll grind a steady, reliable profit.

6-10 last week, which means if you'd followed the advice above, and bet, say, $100 against my every pick, you'd have come out about $350 ahead. That adds up, you know?

Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS

When in doubt, take the points. I still don't trust the Chiefs at all.

FLAMING THUMBTACKS (-7) over Texans

Last week the Texans served notice that they might really, really suck (partly because I'm still not a Jets believer) and the Flaming Thumbtacks served notice they're good enough to battle the Steelers to a draw. I know I'd happily lay 7 if the Steelers were at home against the Texans.

Patriots (-3.5) over JETS

Sanchez mania has gone way, way too far. When the line came out as Patriots -4.5 I was ready to take the Jets, suspicious that Vegas REALLY wanted me to take the Patriots. Action came in overwhelmingly on the Jets. This makes no sense. The Patriots are better than the Jets. Sometimes I think Belichick intentionally lays stink bombs in week 1, then bets half his salary on the Patriots in week 2.

PACKERS (-9) over Bengals

I really hate to lay so many points on a bad coach, but the Bengals are so painstakingly awful in all respects.

Vikings (-10) over LIONS

I'm just going to pick against the Lions every week until about week 7 or so and then re-evaluate. They were ugly against the Saints last year, and watching Matt Stafford try to play quarterback in the NFL makes one cringe.

EAGLES (+1.5) over Saints

Quarterback notwithstanding, the Eagles are still a pretty good team, and there's some overreaction to the Saints' performance last week. You'd think everyone had forgotten that the Lions are the friggin' Lions.

FALCONS (-6) over Panthers

I'll be surprised if Delhomme throws more than 15 times. You have to think now that John Fox--who, remember his job is always on the line because Koach Koacher is openly waiting for it--is just going to hand the ball to DeAngelo Williams and DeJonathan Stewart 25 times each and hope the other team screws up. Anyway, this is an NFC South matchup, which means home team wins.

REDSKINS (-9.5) over Rams

I had the Rams down first, but two things changed my mind: I'm still feeling burned over using the same logic to pick the Rams over the Seahawks last week (do the Redskins ever beat anybody by 10 points?) and you saw how well that turned out; and the Redskins are at home while the Rams are going to a different time zone.

JAGUARS (-3) over Cardinals

The effect when a west coast team travels to the east coast is so severe it even overrides Rule 5a (always bet on the underdog in all Jaguars games).

Seahawks (+1) over 49ERS

The Seahawks are just a better team. Don't get too excited about the 49ers benefiting from the Cardinals taking last week off. The Cardinals do that a lot.

BUCCANEERS (+4) over Bills

The Bills always manage to win six games against bad opponents every year--they're reliable like that--and the Buccaneers are terrible. On the other hand, the Bills are also terrible, and their home field advantage isn't much in September; I'd happily pick the Bills over the warm-weather Buccaneers in November. But here... when in doubt, take the points.

BRONCOS (-3) over Browns

This is close again and I probably should take the points, but I think Denver's home field advantage should be enough to carry the day.

Ravens (+3) over CHARGERS

I could see strong arguments in favor of either team (The Ravens defense isn't as awesome as it used to be and Phil Rivers is one of the best in the game; the Chargers defense ain't so hot, either, and Joe Flacco is good enough). In doubt; taking points.

BEARS (+3) over Steelers

Of the 13 teams on the Steelers' schedule, two of them present by far the worst matchup for them: The Bears and the Vikings. Competent QB who likes to attack downfield; that's the kind of QB that routinely rips up the Steelers' defense, and that's without accounting for Polamalu's absence. It's just the nature of the Steelers' defensive strategy. They attack the QB and leave downfield open, figuring if the QB can get it in there, power to him. On the other side, they have a hellacious defensive line that is going to beat the daylights out of the Steelers' o-line and make a pinata out of Ben Roethlisberger. The Bears will win by double digits, probably approaching 20.

Put it this way: If the Steelers win this one, I will feel very good about their prospects of running 12-4 or 13-3 and going for the repeat. Even if the Bears win 34-13--which is likely--I won't feel that bad about the Steelers; I'll feel about the same about them, which is 10-6 or so if Roethlisberger plays most of the year. This is just a very, very bad matchup for the Steelers.

COWBOYS (-3) over Giants

BE CAREFUL! IT'S A TRAP!

The Cowboys are going to be good the first half of the year before undergoing the usual Phillips/Romo Collapse. I like them to beat the Giants at home here; the Giants are good-not-great.

DOLPHINS (+3) over Colts

I went back and forth on this one, too. If I assert that the Dolphins suck, that's great... but the Caldwell Colts, I don't have a lot of confidence in them, either, not in September when it's starting to become clear that Old Peyton Manning stays off the throttle until November (a pretty smart move, by the way). But if I pick the Dolphins, I have to believe they're better than they looked last week (they looked AWFUL last week), which means I have to believe the Falcons are awesome (and I don't). So many quandaries. In doubt; taking points.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

NFL Week 1 Picks, Real Quick

Working under a deadline so it's just going to be quick picks and a sentence, and yes, I made my Thursday game pick before the game, as Adam or Bryan will attest.

Flaming Thumbtacks (+6.5) over STEELERS

They blew out the Steelers last year, and both teams return close to the same personnel. Haynesworth's absence won't make THAT much of a difference.

Broncos (+5) over BENGALS

KUBIAK says the Broncos are fixin' to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, and it's hard to argue, but... this is the Bengals.

TEXANS (-4.5) over Jets

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure the Jets are going to be one of the worst teams in the league. I know, I know, home favorites, and the Texans, blah, blah, blah. The Jets suck.

COLTS (-6.5) over Jaguars

Because I'm down on the Jaguars this year, but most people--who only know that Maurice Atherton Youngblood Bracegirdle Oliver "Jones" Drew III Jr. is a good fantasy back--are high on them, and it feels like Vegas wants me to take the points.

Lions (+13.5) over SAINTS

I'll believe the Ain'ts have the defense to beat anybody, even the Lions, by 14 points when I see it.

Cowboys (-5) over BUCCANEERS

One of the easier picks of the week to me. I think the Cowboys are going to be good, at least the first half of the year before the Phillips Effect fully kicks in.

Dolphins (+4) over FALCONS

I don't know, really. This seams like a coin flip to me--I'd definitely back the Dolphins in Miami--so I'll just take the points.

Chiefs (+12.5) over RAVENS

Vegas wants me to do this, don't they? I'm not going to outthink myself here--I don't really like the Ravens' chances of being anyone by 13 that often.

PANTHERS (+2.5) over Eagles

It seems too easy to take the Eagles. The line's too low. And the Eagles are flakes, especially early in the season. Vegas is definitely trying to bait me into taking the Eagles.

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS

The 49ers have a real chance to win this thing.

Redskins (+6.5) over GIANTS

I don't trust Cap'n Eli until I actually see a couple easy wins over divisional foes. I'll take the points.

Rams (+7.5) over SEAHAWKS

Sorry, but once again, I'll take 7 points on pretty much anyone against the Seahawks.

PACKERS (-4) over Bears

Remember: Week 1 means nothing. I predict that one team or the other will win this game emphatically... and then go on to finish at least two games behind the loser in the standings.

PATRIOTS (-11) over Bills

Couldn't have said it better than Adam already did: Prediction? Pain.

CHARGERS (-9.5) over Raiders

Because, well... it's the Raiders.